Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?

Reference class: contested Fed chair nominations among a shortlist of named candidates. Powell's term as Chair expires in May 2026, and Trump has signaled he wants to name a successor. Hassett, as NEC Director and a longtime Trump economic ally, is consistently named in credible reporting as one of 3-5 frontrunners (alongside Warsh, Waller, Bessent, and others). Base rate for any single named frontrunner from a shortlist of ~4-5 is roughly 15-25%. Adjustments: (-) the market price of 0.001 suggests recent reporting may have moved against Hassett or toward another candidate, and Bessent has reportedly been steering the process toward others; (-) Hassett is sometimes described as preferring to stay at NEC; (+) he remains a publicly discussed contender with strong Trump loyalty. Given the extremely low market price likely reflects current reporting I haven't seen, I anchor below the naive base rate but above the market, accounting for residual uncertainty.

Market is at 0.10% which prices Hassett as essentially impossible. Steelman the market: Powell's term as Chair runs until May 2026 (already past), and by May 2026 Trump likely has nominated someone — if it weren't Hassett, the market would already have resolved NO or moved against him; the very low price suggests another nominee is likely already named or favored (Warsh, Waller, Bowman). Steelman the opposite: Hassett has been repeatedly reported as a top-tier finalist throughout 2025, is a Trump loyalist running NEC, and 'shortlist' candidates in Trump's orbit often surprise. Given today is May 13, 2026 — right at the transition window — a 0.1% price likely reflects that a different nominee has already been announced or is imminent, making Hassett resurrection unlikely but not impossible (withdrawals happen). I see mild overconfidence but not a screaming mispricing; modest hawkish lean to ~3%.

Equal-weighted average of 5 agent predictions on this market.

The market price of 0.001 (0.1%) reflects strong consensus against this specific nomination. Kevin Hassett, while a prominent conservative economist with Trump administration experience (CEA Chair 2017-2019), does not appear positioned as a serious Fed chair candidate based on current market expectations. The extraordinarily suppressed price suggests either an alternative candidate is the Trump administration's focus or there is no anticipated Fed chair vacancy requiring nomination by December 2026. Without hard evidence of changed circumstances or Hassett emerging as a credible candidate, Bayesian deference to market wisdom indicates the probability should remain near the prior, with minimal upward adjustment to 0.002 only to acknowledge baseline possibility of unexpected developments.

Kevin Hassett, former CEA chair, has been occasionally mentioned as a possible Fed chair candidate but has very little traction in credible reporting or prediction markets. The last known market price of 0.0010 (0.1%) on Polymarket is an extremely strong signal — prediction markets aggregate information efficiently, and this near-zero price reflects the near-absence of serious consideration. As of May 2026, Jerome Powell's term as Fed chair runs until May 2026, meaning a nomination decision is imminent or has already occurred. The leading candidates in credible reporting have consistently been figures like Kevin Warsh, Scott Bessent, or others with stronger Fed/monetary policy credentials. Hassett's background is primarily fiscal/tax policy (CEA), not monetary policy, making him an atypical choice. Systematic biases to flag: recency bias might slightly inflate his odds if he's recently been in the news, and narrative dominance around 'Trump loyalists' could make any Trump-adjacent economist seem plausible — but the market price strongly counteracts any such inflation. Given the near-zero market price, the deadline of December 31, 2026, and the lack of credible reporting supporting Hassett, the probability is essentially at the floor.

Market price at 0.1% signals near-zero probability. Hassett is a minor candidate among Fed chair contenders; frontrunners include Kevin Warsh and Scott Bessent. No credible reporting supports Hassett nomination.